Food-borne Illness Estimates Decline Significantly—Why?

Almost every morning, my computer wakes up to news of a food recall.  (On December 29^th, it was contaminated J&D Produce; on December 31, it was First Class Foods organic ground beef.)  Therefore, my computer blinked in surprise when a link led it to the astonishing announcement that the estimate of annual food-borne illness cases in the U.S. had suddenly DECLINED by about 1/3.  Is the U.S. food supply actually getting safer?  Not really.  According to Dr. Glenn Morris, director of the University of Florida’s Emerging Pathogens Institute, “Things are not getting better, but they’re not getting worse either.”  So why the big drop?  The explanation lies in the word “estimate.”

There’s a huge difference between the number of confirmed cases and the number of estimated cases of food-borne illness.  Many people who develop short-term food-borne illness do not consult a doctor.  In addition, many cases seen by a physician are not reported. Though CDC records have, in recent years, confirmed roughly 2 million cases of food-borne illness, from 1999 until very recently, the estimated number of cases was about 76 million, including 5,000 deaths.  These older estimates said that about 1 out of 4 Americans get a food-borne illness every year.  The new estimates (announced by the federal government’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on December 15, 2010) lowered the numbers to 1 out of 6 or about 48 million.  Furthermore, the estimated number of deaths declined to 3,000.  This sounds great until you remember that this change is a reflection of better methodology not safer food. 

For both the old and new statistics, government statisticians collected information from 1) laboratory-confirmed illnesses in 10 states and 2) phone surveys.  One of the reasons for the reduction is that more cases of acute gastroenteritis (stomach illness) are attributed to flu or other viruses transmitted by person-to-person contact rather than contaminated food. 

The study reveals how little is known about food-borne illness.  About 4/5ths or 38 million estimated cases are caused by “unspecified agents,” including pathogens scientists know little or nothing about.  According to the estimates, about 5.5 million cases are caused by norovirus, which can either be spread by food or by person-to-person contact.  Bacteria, including the all-too-familiar salmonella and E.coli, account for about 3.9 million estimated cases.

Guess what?  This newly revised estimate is still a guess.  According the New York Times, “The 48 million figure is near the midpoint of the range of projections in the survey, which said the number of illnesses could be as few as 29 million or as many as 71 million.” 

Research on food-borne illness is ongoing.  “The CDC is working on a follow-up study with a range of pathogens to try to determine how often each is linked with a particular food.  That will allow regulators to focus on the areas of greatest risk in the food system,” says the New York Times.

Note:  If you have J&D Produce or  Nature’s Harvest or Organic Harvest beef  (from First Class Foods) in your home, check the sources below to learn more about these recalls, and do not consume these products before checking to see if they are on recall lists.

Source(s):

nytimes.com “New Estimates of Food Poisoning Cases”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/16/business/16illness.html

ufl.edu  University  of Florida News “UF experts seek to improve data on food-borne illness”
http://news.ufl.edu/2010/12/15/fed-food/

shelflifeadvice.com “About how many cases of food-borne illness occur in the U.S. each year?”
http://shelflifeadvice.com/content/about-how-many-cases-food-borne-illness-occur-us-each-year

fda.gov ”J&D Produce Announces Precautionary, Voluntary Recall of Fresh Greens”
http://www.fda.gov/Safety/Recalls/ucm238370.htm

usda.gov  “California Firm Recalls Ground Beef Products Due to Possible E.coli 0157:H7 Contamination
http://www.fsis.usda.gov/News_&_Events/Recall_070_2010_Release/index.asp

Link(s):

nytimes.com “New Estimates of Food Poisoning Cases”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/16/business/16illness.html